Chronic diseases are already draining the health system
In Italy the population is ageing, fewer children are being born and more and more people live with chronic diseases, that is, diseases that last over time and need continuous care. These changes make it harder for the National Health Service to guarantee care for everyone in the future too. Chronic disease care already accounts for 80% of health spending.
An ageing country, a growing burden of chronic disease
Median age of the population, in years
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 41.9 | 42.3 | 42.6 | 42.9 | 43.3 | 43.7 | 44.0 | 44.4 | 44.7 | 45.2 | 45.6 | 46.0 | 46.4 | 46.8 | 47.2 | 47.6 | 48.0 | 48.4 | 48.7 | 49.1 | 49.4 | 49.7 | 50.0 | 50.2 | 50.4 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 50.8 | 51.0 | 51.1 | 51.1 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.3 | 51.3 | 51.4 | 51.4 | 51.4 | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| Germany | 42.3 | 42.8 | 43.2 | 43.7 | 44.2 | 44.7 | 45.0 | 45.4 | 45.6 | 45.9 | 45.8 | 45.9 | 46.0 | 46.0 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 45.8 | 45.7 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.6 | 45.6 | 45.7 | 45.8 | 45.9 | 46.0 | 46.1 | 46.3 | 46.5 | 46.6 | 46.8 | 46.9 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.1 | 47.2 | 47.3 | 47.4 |
| Portugal | 39.6 | 40.0 | 40.4 | 40.8 | 41.2 | 41.7 | 42.2 | 42.6 | 43.1 | 43.6 | 44.1 | 44.5 | 45.0 | 45.4 | 45.9 | 46.3 | 46.7 | 46.9 | 47.1 | 47.3 | 47.7 | 48.0 | 48.4 | 48.7 | 49.0 | 49.2 | 49.5 | 49.7 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 50.4 | 50.5 | 50.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 50.8 | 50.8 | 50.9 | 51.0 |
| Spain | 38.8 | 39.0 | 39.2 | 39.4 | 39.9 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 41.3 | 41.8 | 42.3 | 42.7 | 43.2 | 43.5 | 43.9 | 44.2 | 44.6 | 45.1 | 45.3 | 45.6 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 46.5 | 46.9 | 47.2 | 47.5 | 47.8 | 48.0 | 48.3 | 48.5 | 48.7 | 48.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.1 | 49.2 | 49.3 | 49.4 | 49.5 | 49.5 | 49.6 |
| France | 38.9 | 39.1 | 39.3 | 39.6 | 39.8 | 40.0 | 40.3 | 40.6 | 40.7 | 41.0 | 41.2 | 41.4 | 41.6 | 41.8 | 41.9 | 42.0 | 42.1 | 42.3 | 42.6 | 42.8 | 43.0 | 43.2 | 43.3 | 43.5 | 43.7 | 43.9 | 44.0 | 44.2 | 44.3 | 44.5 | 44.6 | 44.7 | 44.7 | 44.8 | 44.8 | 44.9 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 45.2 |
| United Kingdom | 38.8 | 38.9 | 39.1 | 39.2 | 39.4 | 39.5 | 39.7 | 39.8 | 39.9 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.1 | 40.2 | 40.3 | 40.4 | 40.6 | 40.9 | 41.1 | 41.2 | 41.3 | 41.5 | 41.6 | 41.7 | 41.8 | 41.9 | 42.1 | 42.3 | 42.5 | 42.6 | 42.8 | 42.9 | 43.0 | 43.1 | 43.2 | 43.3 | 43.4 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 43.6 |
| Norway | 38.0 | 38.2 | 38.4 | 38.5 | 38.6 | 38.7 | 38.8 | 38.9 | 39.0 | 39.1 | 39.2 | 39.3 | 39.5 | 39.7 | 39.9 | 40.2 | 40.4 | 40.5 | 40.6 | 40.8 | 41.1 | 41.3 | 41.4 | 41.6 | 41.8 | 42.1 | 42.3 | 42.5 | 42.7 | 42.9 | 43.1 | 43.3 | 43.5 | 43.6 | 43.8 | 44.0 | 44.1 | 44.3 | 44.4 | 44.6 |
| EU average | 40.0 | 40.3 | 40.6 | 41.0 | 41.3 | 41.6 | 41.9 | 42.2 | 42.5 | 42.8 | 43.0 | 43.2 | 43.5 | 43.7 | 43.9 | 44.2 | 44.4 | 44.5 | 44.7 | 44.9 | 45.1 | 45.3 | 45.5 | 45.7 | 45.9 | 46.0 | 46.2 | 46.4 | 46.6 | 46.7 | 46.9 | 47.1 | 47.2 | 47.4 | 47.5 | 47.6 | 47.7 | 47.7 | 47.8 | 47.8 |
Source: Eurostat (data) and Eurostat EUROPOP2023 (projections)
Today Italy is the oldest country in Europe
People by age group, % of population
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 15–64 | 66.1 | 65.8 | 65.7 | 65.7 | 65.5 | 65.5 | 65.2 | 64.9 | 64.6 | 64.3 | 64.2 | 64.1 | 64.0 | 63.9 | 63.8 | 63.6 | 63.5 | 63.6 | 63.5 | 63.4 | 63.3 | 63.0 | 62.8 | 62.5 | 62.0 | 61.6 | 61.1 | 60.7 | 60.2 | 59.7 | 59.2 | 58.7 | 58.2 | 57.6 | 57.1 | 56.7 | 56.3 | 56.0 | 55.7 | 55.5 |
| Over 65 | 19.8 | 20.1 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.8 | 21.1 | 21.5 | 21.9 | 22.1 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 23.5 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 24.3 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 25.6 | 26.0 | 26.5 | 27.1 | 27.6 | 28.2 | 28.7 | 29.2 | 29.8 | 30.2 | 30.7 | 31.2 | 31.6 | 32.1 | 32.5 | 32.8 | 33.0 | 33.2 | 33.4 |
Source: Istat (data) and Istat, Population projections (projections)
More older people,
fewer people funding healthcare
The population is ageing. Between 2006 and 2045 the share of people aged 65 and over rises from 20% to 33%, while the share of working-age people, aged 15 to 64, falls from 66% to 55%.
This change puts at risk the National Health Service’s ability to guarantee care: fewer people of working age will contribute to its funding, and more older people will have greater care needs.
People with chronic diseases, per 100 residents
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2017 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least one | 38.4 | 39.2 | 38.8 | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.6 | 38.9 | 39.1 | 39.9 | 40.8 | 40.9 | 39.9 | 40.4 | 40.5 | 40.7 | 41.0 | 41.2 | 41.5 | 41.7 | 42.0 | 42.3 | 42.5 | 42.8 | 43.1 | 43.3 | 43.6 | 43.9 | 44.1 | 44.4 | 44.6 | 44.8 | 45.0 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 45.4 | 45.5 |
| Two or more | 20.7 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 20.1 | 20.0 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.7 | 20.9 | 21.5 | 20.8 | 20.9 | 21.5 | 20.8 | 21.0 | 21.2 | 21.4 | 21.6 | 21.8 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 22.8 | 23.0 | 23.2 | 23.5 | 23.7 | 24.0 | 24.2 | 24.4 | 24.7 | 24.9 | 25.1 | 25.2 | 25.3 | 25.5 |
Source: Istat, Aspects of daily life; projections by Fondazione GRACE
Chronic disease: more people live with it
With an ageing population and the spread of unhealthy habits, more people are living with chronic diseases, which last over time and need continuous care. More and more people live with several chronic diseases at once and need more complex care.
Eating well, being physically active regularly and having the recommended check-ups help prevent many diseases or detect them in time, so you can live longer and in good health.
Millions of people, today and in the forecasts
| 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | 2055 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least one chronic disease | 24.0 | 25.3 | 26.7 | 28.0 | 29.3 | 30.7 | 32.0 |
| Two or more chronic diseases | 12.5 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 16.0 | 16.7 |
| Dependent people | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| Dementia cases | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
Source: Fondazione GRACE estimate based on Istat population projections and Osservasalute Report
More people with chronic diseases
What are chronic diseases? They are illnesses that last a long time, often for life. They get worse slowly and almost never go away completely. That is why they need care and attention every day.
Some examples: high blood pressure, diabetes, heart and lung disease. They are not contagious: you cannot catch them from other people.
Actual data refer to 2025, the latest year available; values for later years are forecasts.
The charts will be updated as soon as new official data are published.